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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 15

Denver Broncos 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(8:20) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.51 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 15, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model