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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 20 at the 43

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(:53) 18-J.Locke punts 32 yards to DEN 11, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 19% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.19 EP
  • 81% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 43, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model