Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 73

Chicago Bears 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 4-S.Lanning punts 46 yards to LV 27, Center-43-T.Gafford. 38-T.Carrie to LV 49 for 22 yards (49-S.Acho). LV-38-T.Carrie was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.15 EP
64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model