4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
Sunday 2015-10-04 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

OAK
72.9%
CHI
27.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI defense: +0.280 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • LV offense: +0.106 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.134 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Derek Carr (LV): +0.328 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LV defense: +0.172 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Jay Cutler (CHI) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

OAK 26
–
CHI 19
Projected margin: OAK by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

OAK

Benson Mayowa DE Out Knee
Keith McGill CB Out Foot
C.J. Wilson DE Out Calf
Ben Heeney LB Questionable Hamstring
Taiwan Jones RB Questionable Foot
Charles Woodson S Questionable Shoulder
Justin Ellis DT Probable Ankle
Jamize Olawale RB Probable Ankle
Justin Tuck DE Probable Knee
Khalil Mack DE Probable Hip

CHI

Jermon Bushrod T Out Concussion
Alan Ball CB Questionable Groin
Jay Cutler QB Questionable Hamstring
Ego Ferguson DE Questionable Knee
Alshon Jeffery WR Questionable Hamstring
Pat O'Donnell P Questionable right Knee
Jay Ratliff DT Questionable Ankle
Will Sutton DE Questionable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 20
–
CHI 22

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:02 TD CHI (11:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 19-E.Royal for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – CHI 6
  • Q2 11:17 TD LV (11:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 89-A.Cooper. Oakland challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 89-A.Cooper for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 6 – CHI 6
  • Q2 07:18 TD LV (7:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 26-R.Helu for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 13 – CHI 6
  • Q2 03:35 TD CHI (3:35) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 83-M.Bennett for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 14 – CHI 12
  • Q2 01:30 FG CHI (1:30) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-4-S.Lanning. OAK 14 – CHI 16
  • Q3 10:58 FG LV (10:58) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 17 – CHI 16
  • Q4 13:07 FG CHI (13:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-4-S.Lanning. OAK 17 – CHI 19
  • Q4 02:10 FG LV (2:10) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 20 – CHI 19
  • Q4 00:07 FG CHI (:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-4-S.Lanning. OAK 20 – CHI 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:11) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 54 yards to CHI 6, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-18-A.Holmes.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 19 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (6:31) (Punt formation) 4-S.Lanning punts 51 yards to LV 13, Center-43-T.Gafford. 38-T.Carrie to LV 17 for 4 yards (31-C.Prosinski; 35-J.Rodgers). PENALTY on LV-25-D.Hayden, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at LV 13.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (3:43) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 52 yards to CHI 20, Center-59-J.Condo. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 22 for 2 yards (58-N.Ball). PENALTY on CHI-20-T.Mitchell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 22.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 4-S.Lanning punts 46 yards to LV 27, Center-43-T.Gafford. 38-T.Carrie to LV 49 for 22 yards (49-S.Acho). LV-38-T.Carrie was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.80 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (1:30) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-4-S.Lanning.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:31) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to CHI 36, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-Team.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 15 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:41) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to CHI 31, Center-59-J.Condo. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 46 for 15 yards (58-N.Ball; 57-R.Armstrong).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 4 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 95%

    (10:58) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:06) (Punt formation) 4-S.Lanning punts 39 yards to LV 18, Center-43-T.Gafford. 89-A.Cooper to LV 25 for 7 yards (53-J.Timu).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 25%

    (3:10) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 38 yards to CHI 10, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 14 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 56%

    (13:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-4-S.Lanning.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 84%

    (2:10) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:30) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 83-M.Bennett to CHI 32 for 7 yards (57-R.Armstrong).