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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 86

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(:31) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to CHI 36, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-Team.

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.55 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 86, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 44, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model