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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 11

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(10:58) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.36 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP