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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 48

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(3:10) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 38 yards to CHI 10, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.04 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.64 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model