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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 36

Chicago Bears 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(13:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-4-S.Lanning.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.49 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model