Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 60

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Chicago Bears 6

(10:11) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 54 yards to CHI 6, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-18-A.Holmes.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.50 EP
62% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 60, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model