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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 23

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Chicago Bears 19

What Actually Happened

(2:10) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.02 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model