Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 75

Chicago Bears 19 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

(1:30) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 83-M.Bennett to CHI 32 for 7 yards (57-R.Armstrong).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

What Happened

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.11 EP
54% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 75, worth -3.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model