Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 72

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(3:43) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 52 yards to CHI 20, Center-59-J.Condo. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 22 for 2 yards (58-N.Ball). PENALTY on CHI-20-T.Mitchell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.32 EP
52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 72, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model