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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 43

Detroit Lions 7 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(5:47) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to ARI 1, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-24-N.Lawson.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.19 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 43, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.16 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model