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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
Sunday 2015-10-11 · 16:05 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -4.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

ARI
77.5%
DET
22.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: +0.214 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: Matthew Stafford (DET) -0.028 vs Carson Palmer (ARI) +0.315 EPA/dropback
  • DET offense: -0.142 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.166 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

ARI 28
–
DET 20
Projected margin: ARI by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

ARI

Darren Fells TE Questionable Hip
J.J. Nelson WR Questionable Shoulder
Chris Clemons S Probable Hamstring
Andre Ellington RB Probable Knee
Alani Fua LB Probable Hamstring
Rashad Johnson S Probable Hip
Frostee Rucker DT Probable Thigh
LaMarr Woodley LB Probable Thigh
Justin Bethel CB Probable Foot

DET

Joique Bell RB Out Ankle
Eric Ebron TE Out Knee
Haloti Ngata DT Out Calf
James Ihedigbo S Questionable Quadricep
Larry Warford G Questionable Ankle
Ezekiel Ansah DE Probable Shoulder
DeAndre Levy LB Probable Hip
Travis Lewis LB Probable Ankle
Rashean Mathis CB Probable Calf
Lance Moore WR Probable Ankle
Corey Robinson T Probable Ankle
Sam Martin P Probable left Knee
Brandon Pettigrew TE Probable Hamstring
Darius Slay CB Probable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 42
–
DET 17

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:27 TD DET (2:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 25-T.Riddick for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – DET 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD ARI (15:00) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 85-D.Fells for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – DET 7
  • Q2 11:01 TD ARI (11:01) 31-D.Johnson up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – DET 7
  • Q2 03:16 TD ARI (3:16) 31-D.Johnson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 20 – DET 7
  • Q2 02:13 TD ARI (2:13) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass deep middle to 12-JO.Brown for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ARI-12-JO.Brown, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Penalty on ARI-13-JA.Brown, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, declined. ARI 27 – DET 7
  • Q3 06:31 TD ARI (6:31) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 34 – DET 7
  • Q4 11:56 FG DET (11:56) 5-M.Prater 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. ARI 35 – DET 10
  • Q4 10:31 TD ARI (10:31) 38-A.Ellington left tackle for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 41 – DET 10
  • Q4 01:36 TD DET (1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Orlovsky pass short left to 16-L.Moore for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 42 – DET 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 10 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 46%

    (12:44) 2-D.Butler punts 30 yards to DET 13, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 13-T.Jones. PENALTY on DET-57-J.Bynes, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at DET 13.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 11 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:17) 2-D.Butler punts 34 yards to DET 28, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 13-T.Jones. PENALTY on DET-10-C.Fuller, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at DET 28.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 15 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 46%

    (5:47) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to ARI 1, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-24-N.Lawson.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 11 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (:48) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to ARI 6, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 16 for 10 yards (95-B.Copeland).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (13:10) 2-D.Butler punts 35 yards to DET 36, Center-82-M.Leach. 13-T.Jones to DET 38 for 2 yards (10-B.Golden).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 41%

    (10:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 81-C.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 21-P.Peterson at ARI 28. 21-P.Peterson to DET 32 for 40 yards (63-M.Ramirez).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (14:12) 2-D.Butler punts 48 yards to DET 30, Center-82-M.Leach. 13-T.Jones pushed ob at DET 40 for 10 yards (22-T.Jefferson). PENALTY on DET-26-D.Carey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 28.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 88%

    (11:56) 5-M.Prater 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 11 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 46%

    (7:53) 2-D.Butler punts 31 yards to DET 12, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (7:04) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to ARI 27, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 10-B.Golden to ARI 33 for 6 yards (26-D.Carey).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (5:32) 2-D.Butler punts 49 yards to DET 14, Center-82-M.Leach, downed by ARI-82-M.Leach.