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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 22

Detroit Lions 7 – Arizona Cardinals 35

What Actually Happened

(11:56) 5-M.Prater 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.06 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 32, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model