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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 81

Detroit Lions 10 – Arizona Cardinals 42

What Actually Happened

(7:04) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to ARI 27, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 10-B.Golden to ARI 33 for 6 yards (26-D.Carey).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.34 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 81, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 38, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model