Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 63

Arizona Cardinals 42 – Detroit Lions 10

(5:32) 2-D.Butler punts 49 yards to DET 14, Center-82-M.Leach, downed by ARI-82-M.Leach.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.73 EP
55% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 63, worth -3.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model