Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 62

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 2-D.Butler punts 34 yards to DET 28, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 13-T.Jones. PENALTY on DET-10-C.Fuller, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at DET 28.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.42 EP
65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 62, worth -3.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model