4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 55

Tennessee Titans 3 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(7:57) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.87 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 55, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 16, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model