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Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
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Tennessee Titans

HC Ken Whisenhunt
Sunday 2015-10-11 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

BUF
36.7%
TEN
63.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN defense: -0.142 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • TEN offense: +0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • TEN on 7 more days rest than BUF
  • QB edge to TEN: Marcus Mariota (TEN) +0.158 vs Tyrod Taylor (BUF) +0.170 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BUF 22
–
TEN 28
Projected margin: TEN by 6 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

BUF

MarQueis Gray TE Out Forearm
LeSean McCoy RB Out Hamstring
Bacarri Rambo S Out Quadricep
Karlos Williams RB Out Concussion
Sammy Watkins WR Questionable Calf
Marquise Goodwin WR Probable Ribs
Corey Graham CB Probable Shoulder
Percy Harvin WR Probable Hip
Chris Hogan WR Probable Hamstring
Kyle Williams DT Probable Calf
Charles Clay TE Probable Calf
Cordy Glenn T Probable Ankle
John Miller G Probable Groin
Aaron Williams S Probable Neck

TEN

Sammie Lee Hill DT Doubtful Knee
Cody Riggs CB Questionable Knee
Chance Warmack G Questionable Knee
Jason McCourty CB Probable Groin
Wesley Woodyard LB Probable Not Injury Related

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 14
–
TEN 13

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:12 FG TEN (14:12) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. BUF 0 – TEN 3
  • Q3 06:54 TD TEN (6:54) 26-A.Andrews right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – TEN 9
  • Q3 01:29 TD BUF (1:29) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor up the middle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – TEN 10
  • Q4 09:41 FG TEN (9:41) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. BUF 7 – TEN 13
  • Q4 05:30 TD BUF (5:30) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 15-C.Hogan for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – TEN 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 36
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 60%

    (10:48) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 25 yards to BUF 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 17-D.Moore.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 4 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (9:55) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to TEN 35, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 9 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 30%

    (7:53) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 37 yards to BUF 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 17-D.Moore to BUF 11 for no gain (24-C.Sensabaugh).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 13 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:58) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to TEN 43, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 45 for 2 yards (20-C.Graham). PENALTY on TEN-28-M.Huff, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 45.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (14:12) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:31) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 65 yards to TEN 13, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 27 for 14 yards (58-R.Johnson).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:57) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 15 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:37) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 41 yards to TEN 27, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 22-D.McCluster pushed ob at BUF 47 for 26 yards (26-A.Dixon).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.66 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 53%

    (3:01) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 31 yards to BUF 8, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 17-D.Moore.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 5 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 47 yards to TEN 10, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 17 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:11) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 61 yards to TEN 14, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 29 for 15 yards (26-A.Dixon).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 9 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:21) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to BUF 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 17-D.Moore to BUF 40 for 28 yards (45-J.Fowler; 48-B.Brinkley). Tennessee challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to BUF 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 17-D.Moore to BUF 39 for 27 yards (45-J.Fowler). FUMBLES (45-J.Fowler), RECOVERED by TEN-52-S.Johnson at BUF 39. 52-S.Johnson to BUF 39 for no gain (58-R.Johnson). Penalty on BUF-27-D.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 3 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 86%

    (9:41) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:01) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to BUF 23, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 17-D.Moore pushed ob at BUF 36 for 13 yards (25-B.Wreh-Wilson).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 14 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:51) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to TEN 22, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 31 for 9 yards (20-C.Graham).