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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 17 at the 75

Buffalo Bills 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(12:11) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 61 yards to TEN 14, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 29 for 15 yards (26-A.Dixon).

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.18 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model