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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 83

Buffalo Bills 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:55) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to TEN 35, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.28 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 83, worth -5.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.43 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 41, worth -2.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model