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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 48

Tennessee Titans 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(7:53) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 37 yards to BUF 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 17-D.Moore to BUF 11 for no gain (24-C.Sensabaugh).

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.64 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 48, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model