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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 3

Tennessee Titans 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(14:12) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +3.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.42 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 3, worth +0.60 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP