4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 89

Chicago Bears 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to KC 43, Center-43-T.Gafford. 13-D.Thomas to KC 46 for 3 yards (43-T.Gafford).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.29 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 89, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.86 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 46, worth -2.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP