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Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2015-10-11 · 13:00 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

CHI
39.5%
KC
60.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: -0.118 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.169 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • KC offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • KC defense: +0.058 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Jay Cutler (CHI): +0.151 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

CHI 19
–
KC 25
Projected margin: KC by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

CHI

Jermon Bushrod T Out Concussion
Antrel Rolle S Doubtful Ankle
Alshon Jeffery WR Questionable Hamstring
Pernell McPhee LB Questionable Shoulder
Patrick Omameh G Questionable Ankle
Eddie Royal WR Questionable Ankle
Alan Ball CB Questionable Groin
Jimmy Clausen QB Questionable Back
Jay Cutler QB Questionable Hamstring
Tayo Fabuluje T Questionable Ankle
Kyle Long T Questionable Back
Shea McClellin LB Questionable Elbow
Sherrick McManis CB Questionable Hamstring
Jay Ratliff DT Questionable Ankle
Will Sutton DE Questionable Elbow
Pat O'Donnell P Probable right Knee

KC

Joshua Mauga LB Out Groin
Albert Wilson WR Questionable Shoulder
Travis Kelce TE Probable Groin
James O'Shaughnessy TE Probable Hand

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 18
–
KC 17

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:18 TD KC (8:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 0 for -8 yards (sack split by 97-A.Bailey and 96-J.Howard). FUMBLES (97-A.Bailey) [97-A.Bailey], RECOVERED by KC-53-R.Wilson at CHI -2. TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – KC 6
  • Q1 00:58 FG CHI (:58) 9-R.Gould 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – KC 7
  • Q2 10:03 TD KC (10:03) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 13-D.Thomas for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 3 – KC 13
  • Q2 00:12 FG KC (:12) 5-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. CHI 3 – KC 17
  • Q3 03:32 FG CHI (3:32) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 6 – KC 17
  • Q4 03:11 TD CHI (3:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep left to 10-M.Wilson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 12 – KC 17
  • Q4 00:23 TD CHI (:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler to KC 12 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at KC 12. 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 22-M.Forte for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 18 – KC 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 17%

    (10:41) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to KC 10, Center-43-T.Gafford. 13-D.Thomas to KC 20 for 10 yards (57-L.Barrow).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:05) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to CHI 17, Center-41-J.Winchester. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 35 for 18 yards (30-J.Fleming). PENALTY on CHI-33-J.Langford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 19.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 8 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 80%

    (:58) 9-R.Gould 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (14:57) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to CHI 5, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:35) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to KC 43, Center-43-T.Gafford. 13-D.Thomas to KC 46 for 3 yards (43-T.Gafford).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (8:15) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to KC 23, Center-43-T.Gafford. 13-D.Thomas pushed ob at KC 27 for 4 yards. PENALTY on KC-39-H.Abdullah, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 27.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 46%

    (4:13) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:19) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to KC 27, Center-43-T.Gafford, out of bounds.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 92%

    (:12) 5-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (8:49) 5-C.Santos 27 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-P.McPhee), Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt, recovered by KC-42-A.Sherman at CHI 15. 42-A.Sherman to CHI 15 for no gain (90-J.Ratliff).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 95%

    (3:32) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (1:16) 2-D.Colquitt punts 52 yards to CHI 9, Center-41-J.Winchester. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 14 for 5 yards (85-F.Hammond Jr.).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:13) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to KC 26, Center-43-T.Gafford, out of bounds.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (11:36) 2-D.Colquitt punts 45 yards to CHI 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 38 for 13 yards (30-J.Fleming).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 38%

    (9:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short right to 80-M.Mariani.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:58) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to CHI 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:11) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to CHI 33, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.