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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 40

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.72 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 40, worth -1.69 EP
KICK -0.29 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP