Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 76

Chicago Bears 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

(3:19) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to KC 27, Center-43-T.Gafford, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.28 EP
58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 76, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model