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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 16

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(:12) 5-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +3.59 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 16, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model