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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 53

Chicago Bears 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to KC 10, Center-43-T.Gafford. 13-D.Thomas to KC 20 for 10 yards (57-L.Barrow).

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.72 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 53, worth -3.27 EP
KICK -2.24 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model