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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 12

Chicago Bears 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(3:32) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.55 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model