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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 61

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 2-D.Colquitt punts 52 yards to CHI 9, Center-41-J.Winchester. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 14 for 5 yards (85-F.Hammond Jr.).

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.13 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 61, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 20, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP