Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 76

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Chicago Bears 12

(2:11) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to CHI 33, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
56% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 76, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model