Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 58

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(11:56) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 43 yards to BAL 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 21-L.Webb to BAL 24 for 9 yards (59-T.Carder). PENALTY on CLE-33-J.Poyer, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 58, worth -3.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model