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Cleveland Browns

2-3 HC Mike Pettine
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Baltimore Ravens

1-4 HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2015-10-11 · 13:00 ET M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

CLE
43.8%
BAL
56.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to CLE: Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.023 vs Josh McCown (CLE) +0.190 EPA/dropback
  • BAL offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.130 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • BAL on 3 more days rest than CLE

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CLE 20 13–27
–
BAL 25 18–32
Projected margin: BAL by 5 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 5

CLE

Tashaun Gipson S Out Ankle
Craig Robertson LB Out Ankle
Shaun Draughn RB Doubtful Back
Desmond Bryant DE Questionable Shoulder
Karlos Dansby LB Questionable Ankle
Joe Haden CB Questionable Finger
Brian Hartline WR Questionable Thigh
Scott Solomon LB Questionable Ankle
Robert Turbin RB Questionable Ankle
Johnson Bademosi CB Probable Elbow
Duke Johnson RB Probable Ankle
Johnny Manziel QB Probable right Elbow
Mitchell Schwartz T Probable Thumb
Donte Whitner S Probable Illness
K'Waun Williams CB Probable Concussion

BAL

Chris Canty DE Out Calf
Crockett Gillmore TE Out Calf
Breshad Perriman WR Out Knee
Steve Smith WR Doubtful Back
Eugene Monroe T Probable Concussion
Daryl Smith LB Probable Not Injury Related
Marshal Yanda G Probable Ankle
Albert McClellan LB Probable Abdomen
Lorenzo Taliaferro RB Probable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 33
–
BAL 30

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:35 TD BAL (8:35) No. 74 Hurst reports as eligible. 5-J.Flacco left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – BAL 6
  • Q1 03:16 FG CLE (3:16) 6-T.Coons 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. CLE 3 – BAL 7
  • Q1 00:23 TD BAL (:23) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 44-K.Juszczyk for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – BAL 13
  • Q2 04:09 FG CLE (4:09) 6-T.Coons 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. CLE 6 – BAL 14
  • Q2 00:02 FG CLE (:02) 6-T.Coons 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. CLE 9 – BAL 14
  • Q3 07:50 TD BAL (7:50) No. 74 - James Hurst reports as eligible receiver. 5-J.Flacco left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-94-R.Starks, Defensive Offside, declined. CLE 9 – BAL 20
  • Q3 01:14 TD CLE (1:14) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown scrambles left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BAL-23-K.Lewis, Illegal Contact, declined. CLE 15 – BAL 21
  • Q4 12:29 TD CLE (12:29) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass deep right to 82-G.Barnidge for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [23-K.Lewis]. Gary Barnidge makes incredible catch with legs and rolls into end zone. CLE 22 – BAL 21
  • Q4 06:00 TD BAL (6:00) 29-J.Forsett left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 22 – BAL 27
  • Q4 03:15 TD CLE (3:15) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short left to 34-I.Crowell for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 28 – BAL 27
  • Q4 00:29 FG BAL (:29) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. CLE 30 – BAL 30
  • Q5 06:48 FG CLE (6:48) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. CLE 33 – BAL 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 10 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:32) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 51 yards to CLE 41, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CLE 4th & 9 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:56) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 43 yards to BAL 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 21-L.Webb to BAL 24 for 9 yards (59-T.Carder). PENALTY on CLE-33-J.Poyer, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 24.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 84%

    (3:16) 6-T.Coons 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:31) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 46 yards to BAL 37, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-J.Ross to CLE 46 for 17 yards (84-R.Housler). PENALTY on BAL-25-T.Walker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 41.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:54) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to CLE 16, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 35%

    (9:13) 8-A.Lee punts 38 yards to BAL 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-47-C.Hughlett. PENALTY on CLE-82-G.Barnidge, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 9.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:54) 4-S.Koch punts 34 yards to CLE 39, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 16 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 84%

    (4:09) 6-T.Coons 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 11 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 70%

    (1:07) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 30%

    (12:21) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 39 yards to BAL 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (11:01) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to CLE 5, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (:29) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

    See the full breakdown →