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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 49

Cleveland Browns 9 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(12:21) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 39 yards to BAL 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.86 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.91 EP
KICK -1.46 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP