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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 62

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Cleveland Browns 22

What Actually Happened

(11:01) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to CLE 5, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.88 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 62, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP