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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 25

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 6-T.Coons 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.75 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model