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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 41

Denver Broncos 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(6:19) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.59 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 41, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP