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Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
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Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
Sunday 2015-10-11 · 16:25 O.co Coliseum, Oakland US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

DEN
39.1%
OAK
60.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LV: Derek Carr (LV) +0.231 vs Peyton Manning (DEN) -0.049 EPA/dropback
  • DEN offense: -0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.184 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • LV offense: +0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 20
–
OAK 23
Projected margin: OAK by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

DEN

Cody Latimer WR Out Groin
Ty Sambrailo T Out Shoulder
Evan Mathis G Questionable Hamstring
Bennie Fowler WR Questionable Hamstring
Omar Bolden CB Probable Foot
James Casey TE Probable Knee
Owen Daniels TE Probable Not Injury Related
Ryan Harris T Probable Knee
Peyton Manning QB Probable Not Injury Related
Demaryius Thomas WR Probable Neck
Louis Vasquez G Probable Knee
DeMarcus Ware LB Probable Not Injury Related

OAK

Denico Autry DT Out Concussion
T.J. Carrie CB Out Chest
Justin Ellis DT Out Ankle
Taiwan Jones RB Out Foot
Taylor Mays S Questionable Ankle
Michael Crabtree WR Probable Ankle
Ben Heeney LB Probable Hamstring
Benson Mayowa DE Probable Knee
Keith McGill CB Probable Foot
Latavius Murray RB Probable Shoulder
Justin Tuck DE Probable Knee
C.J. Wilson DE Probable Calf
Charles Woodson S Probable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 16
–
OAK 10

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:22 FG DEN (14:22) 8-B.McManus 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. DEN 3 – OAK 0
  • Q2 09:42 TD LV (9:42) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 45-M.Reece for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 3 – OAK 6
  • Q3 11:28 FG DEN (11:28) 8-B.McManus 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. DEN 6 – OAK 7
  • Q3 06:35 FG DEN (6:35) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. DEN 9 – OAK 7
  • Q4 07:05 TD DEN (7:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 10-S.Roberts INTERCEPTED by 25-C.Harris at DEN 26. 25-C.Harris for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 15 – OAK 7
  • Q4 01:45 FG LV (1:45) 11-S.Janikowski 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. DEN 16 – OAK 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 15 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:17) 7-M.King punts 51 yards to DEN 12, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-18-A.Holmes.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (9:45) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LV 36, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 16 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 88%

    (2:49) 11-S.Janikowski 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-S.Williams), Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 97%

    (14:22) 8-B.McManus 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 43%

    (6:19) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 9 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:36) 7-M.King punts 61 yards to DEN 5, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 9 for 4 yards (58-N.Ball).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:35) 4-B.Colquitt punts 38 yards to LV 23, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-30-D.Bruton.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (11:28) 8-B.McManus 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (9:57) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to DEN 23, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 62%

    (6:35) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:14) 7-M.King punts 45 yards to DEN 15, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 86%

    (15:00) 11-S.Janikowski 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 18 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 17%

    (11:09) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to LV 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-51-T.Davis.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (6:14) 69-K.Barnes reported in as eligible. 49-J.Olawale up the middle to LV 34 for 5 yards (25-C.Harris; 59-D.Trevathan).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 19 at the 51 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 20%

    (2:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 45-M.Reece to DEN 47 for 4 yards (25-C.Harris).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 36%

    (2:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 33%

    (:08) 4-B.Colquitt punts 43 yards to LV 2, Center-46-A.Brewer. 89-A.Cooper to LV 20 for 18 yards. Lateral to 56-L.Alexander to LV 28 for 8 yards (48-S.Barrett). FUMBLES (48-S.Barrett), RECOVERED by DEN-30-D.Bruton at LV 27. 30-D.Bruton to LV 27 for no gain (49-J.Olawale).