Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- LV defense: +0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- QB edge to LV: Derek Carr (LV) +0.231 vs Peyton Manning (DEN) -0.049 EPA/dropback
- LV offense: +0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
- DEN offense: -0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 5
DEN
OAK
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 14:22 FG DEN (14:22) 8-B.McManus 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. DEN 3 – OAK 0
- Q2 09:42 TD LV (9:42) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 45-M.Reece for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 3 – OAK 6
- Q3 11:28 FG DEN (11:28) 8-B.McManus 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. DEN 6 – OAK 7
- Q3 06:35 FG DEN (6:35) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. DEN 9 – OAK 7
- Q4 07:05 TD DEN (7:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 10-S.Roberts INTERCEPTED by 25-C.Harris at DEN 26. 25-C.Harris for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 15 – OAK 7
- Q4 01:45 FG LV (1:45) 11-S.Janikowski 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. DEN 16 – OAK 10
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LV 4th & 15 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(11:17) 7-M.King punts 51 yards to DEN 12, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-18-A.Holmes.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 80Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EPp(convert) 62%
(9:45) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LV 36, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 LV 4th & 16 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 88%
(2:49) 11-S.Janikowski 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-S.Williams), Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 7Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 97%
(14:22) 8-B.McManus 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 41Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 43%
(6:19) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LV 4th & 9 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(3:36) 7-M.King punts 61 yards to DEN 5, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 9 for 4 yards (58-N.Ball).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(13:35) 4-B.Colquitt punts 38 yards to LV 23, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-30-D.Bruton.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 2Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%
(11:28) 8-B.McManus 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(9:57) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to DEN 23, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 62%
(6:35) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LV 4th & 10 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(4:14) 7-M.King punts 45 yards to DEN 15, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.
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Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 86%
(15:00) 11-S.Janikowski 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 18 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 17%
(11:09) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to LV 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-51-T.Davis.
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Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 71Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(6:14) 69-K.Barnes reported in as eligible. 49-J.Olawale up the middle to LV 34 for 5 yards (25-C.Harris; 59-D.Trevathan).
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Q4 LV 4th & 19 at the 51 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.30 EPp(convert) 22% p(FG) 20%
(2:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 45-M.Reece to DEN 47 for 4 yards (25-C.Harris).
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Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 44 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EPp(convert) 68% p(FG) 36%
(2:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 45 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 33%
(:08) 4-B.Colquitt punts 43 yards to LV 2, Center-46-A.Brewer. 89-A.Cooper to LV 20 for 18 yards. Lateral to 56-L.Alexander to LV 28 for 8 yards (48-S.Barrett). FUMBLES (48-S.Barrett), RECOVERED by DEN-30-D.Bruton at LV 27. 30-D.Bruton to LV 27 for no gain (49-J.Olawale).
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