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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 61

Denver Broncos 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 4-B.Colquitt punts 38 yards to LV 23, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-30-D.Bruton.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.24 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 61, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 20, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model