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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 73

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(9:57) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to DEN 23, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 31, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model