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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 22

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 11-S.Janikowski 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.84 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model