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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 18 at the 53

Denver Broncos 9 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to LV 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-51-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.61 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 53, worth -2.93 EP
KICK -1.99 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model