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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 80

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LV 36, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.41 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.38 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 37, worth -2.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP