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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 45

Denver Broncos 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(:08) 4-B.Colquitt punts 43 yards to LV 2, Center-46-A.Brewer. 89-A.Cooper to LV 20 for 18 yards. Lateral to 56-L.Alexander to LV 28 for 8 yards (48-S.Barrett). FUMBLES (48-S.Barrett), RECOVERED by DEN-30-D.Bruton at LV 27. 30-D.Bruton to LV 27 for no gain (49-J.Olawale).

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +0.66 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 45, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -0.37 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP