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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 20

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 11-S.Janikowski 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-S.Williams), Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.03 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 20, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model