4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 7

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(14:22) 8-B.McManus 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.83 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 7, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP