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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 82

Dallas Cowboys 3 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(6:08) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 46 yards to NE 36, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-D.Amendola to NE 45 for 9 yards (57-D.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.95 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 82, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 40, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model