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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2015-10-11 · 16:25 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread -8.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

NE
66.6%
DAL
33.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.254 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • NE on 7 more days rest than DAL
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to NE: Brandon Weeden (DAL) +0.218 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.352 EPA/dropback
  • NE defense: +0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.029 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 28
–
DAL 25
Projected margin: NE by 3 Projected total: 53

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

NE

Bradley Fletcher CB Questionable Hamstring
Trey Flowers DE Questionable Knee
Tarell Brown CB Probable Foot
Ryan Wendell C Probable Illness

DAL

Dez Bryant WR Out Foot
Brice Butler WR Out Hamstring
Randy Gregory DE Out Ankle
James Hanna TE Questionable Ankle
Andrew Gachkar LB Probable Foot
Sean Lee LB Probable Concussion
Ryan Russell DE Probable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 30
–
DAL 6

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:24 FG NE (8:24) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3 – DAL 0
  • Q1 01:52 FG DAL (1:52) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. NE 3 – DAL 3
  • Q2 03:42 TD NE (3:42) 12-T.Brady up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Quarterback keeper. NE 9 – DAL 3
  • Q2 00:08 FG NE (:08) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 13 – DAL 3
  • Q3 09:55 TD NE (9:55) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 33-D.Lewis for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete in the flat; ducked two tacklers for the score. NE 19 – DAL 3
  • Q3 01:22 FG DAL (1:22) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. NE 20 – DAL 6
  • Q4 13:10 TD NE (13:10) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 11-J.Edelman for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN [76-G.Hardy]. NE 26 – DAL 6
  • Q4 04:45 FG NE (4:45) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 30 – DAL 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:08) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 58 yards to NE 20, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-D.Amendola to NE 32 for 12 yards (23-C.White).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 19 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 52%

    (12:49) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 28 yards to DAL 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-36-B.King.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 12 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:38) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 59 yards to NE 30, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-D.Amendola to DAL 45 for 25 yards (91-L.Ladouceur; 51-K.Wilber).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 10 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 75%

    (8:24) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 71%

    (1:52) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 26%

    (14:17) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to DAL 12, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 20 for 8 yards (36-B.King). Return outside the yardline numbers left side of the field.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (12:43) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 53 yards to NE 18, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:49) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 60 yards to DAL 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 13 for -2 yards (18-M.Slater).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (6:08) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 46 yards to NE 36, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-D.Amendola to NE 45 for 9 yards (57-D.Wilson).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (2:11) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 39 yards to NE 42, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-D.Amendola to NE 48 for 6 yards (52-A.Gachkar). PENALTY on NE-26-L.Ryan, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 48.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:18) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to DAL 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 11 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:59) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 43 yards to NE 45, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%

    (1:22) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 82%

    (9:47) 29-L.Blount up the middle to DAL 27 for no gain (92-J.Mincey).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (7:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-B.Weeden scrambles right end to NE 46 for 8 yards (32-D.McCourty).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 93%

    (4:45) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 6 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (1:26) (Shotgun) 3-B.Weeden pass incomplete short left to 83-T.Williams. Pass incomplete lofted left corner of the end zone.